There are actually official start and end dates of United States economic cycles, believe it or not. They are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit research organization. And the NBER has determined that the economic recession plaguing much of the country ended over a year ago.
According to the organization, the recession officially began in December of 2007, and ran up until June 2009, the first month marking the beginning of an expansion. The announcement precludes any talk of a “double dip” recession, as after the ruling any further downturn in the economy will be categorized as a separate economic event.
The final end date of June 2009 was determined based on examination of evidence including GDP, employment rates, and personal income. That means the recession lasted a grand total of 18 months, the longest of any since World War II, beating out two previous recessions that lasted sixteen months each.
Of course, placing an end date on the recession does not necessarily mean everything is roses afterward, a sentiment expressed by President Barack Obama and the organization itself. “Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into an expansion,” says the NBER. The date, then, is mostly of significance to historians and other academics, more than influencing any current economic policy.
The NBER specifically declined to call an end to the recession in April, with some members citing concerns of a possible “double dip” regression despite some signs of improvement. At this point, the panel felt, the break between signs of recovery and any future downturn would be large enough to call them separate events.
